SACRAMENTO, California: California's electric vehicle (EV) sales have hit a plateau, raising concerns about whether the state can meet its ambitious mandate to phase out gas-powered cars.

After years of rapid growth, zero-emission vehicles made up 25.3 percent of new car registrations in 2024, only a slight increase from 25 percent in 2023, according to the California Energy Commission. This stagnation comes just two years before automakers are required to ensure that 35 percent of new car models sold in California are zero-emission—a goal that now seems increasingly difficult to achieve.

For years, California has led the country in EV adoption, with more than 2 million electric cars now on the road. But in 2024, EV sales grew by just 1.1 percent, with 378,910 units sold, compared to 374,668 in 2023. Meanwhile, hydrogen-powered vehicle sales collapsed, dropping from 3,119 in 2023 to just 600 in 2024.

"The sales are declining," said Brian Maas, president of the California New Car Dealers Association. "We have filled that gap of people who want those cars—and now they have them."

Tesla's struggles have also impacted the market. The automaker saw an 11 percent drop in California sales last year, partly due to CEO Elon Musk's controversial public image, which has alienated some left-leaning consumers.

Slow sales growth risks Governor Gavin Newsom's aggressive EV policies, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. State officials insist the mandate is flexible, with automakers allowed to purchase credits from companies like Tesla that exceed sales targets.

Dave Clegern, spokesperson for the California Air Resources Board, acknowledged that EV sales were slowing but noted that overall auto sales had also plateaued in 2024.

Still, some automakers may struggle to meet the targets. Maas warned that companies could reduce the number of gas-powered cars shipped to California, potentially driving up prices and forcing consumers to buy cars in other states or hold onto older, higher-emission vehicles.

"We are just not going to make the mandate as presently drafted," Maas said. "The most rational move is to constrain inventory."

One key issue is consumer demographics. Early adopters of EVs were wealthier and more environmentally conscious, but now the market is expanding to middle-income buyers who prioritize affordability, charging access, and reliability.

Many still view EVs as expensive and inconvenient, with concerns over charging infrastructure, battery range, and resale value.

Meanwhile, industry analysts warn that a second Donald Trump presidency could impact EV policies. Trump has already signed an executive order repealing federal EV incentives, and his administration could challenge California's authority to enforce its gas-car ban.

Despite the uncertainty, EV affordability is improving, with more models under US$50,000 and aggressive lease deals becoming available.

Loren McDonald, chief analyst for charging app Paren, remains optimistic about 2025, citing faster-charging technology, increased vehicle-to-home power capabilities, and a wider range of affordable EV options.

California's ability to reignite EV demand in 2025 will be critical to its long-term climate goals.