Russian central bank to keep key rate on hold at 21%: poll

Russia likely to hold interest rate at 21%, Reuters poll says

Robert Besser
24 Apr 2025, 20:10 GMT+10

Russian central bank to keep key rate on hold at 21%: poll

Russia’s central bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 21 percent when it meets on April 25, as policymakers grapple with mounting global economic uncertainty and pressure on key export revenues
All 25 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll this week predicted the central bank would keep the rate steady, maintaining the tight monetary stance it adopted last October to contain inflation
Although the rouble has appreciated by 40 percent against the dollar this year—helping ease inflation by lowering the cost of imports—analysts warn that declining global oil demand and falling prices may soon reverse those gains

MOSCOW, Russia: Russia's central bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 21 percent when it meets on Friday, as policymakers grapple with mounting global economic uncertainty and pressure on key export revenues.

All 25 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll this week predicted the central bank would keep the rate steady, maintaining the tight monetary stance it adopted last October to contain inflation. That hike pushed borrowing costs to their highest level in over two decades.

Although the rouble has appreciated by 40 percent against the dollar this year—helping ease inflation by lowering the cost of imports—analysts warn that declining global oil demand and falling prices may soon reverse those gains. Oil remains Russia's main export commodity, and the government has slashed its oil price forecast by 17 percent.

"The danger of an impending recession could force the regulator to sharply ease monetary policy, but for now, judging by its rhetoric, the state of the economy does not cause it any concerns," said analysts at Aigenis investment firm.

The government maintained its 2025 economic growth forecast at 2.5 percent this week and said it does not anticipate a significant global recession. However, the central bank is expected to update its projections at its April 24 meeting, which currently show a more cautious one percent to two percent GDP growth outlook for next year.

Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Bank of Russia, has flagged ongoing trade conflicts as a serious risk to the global economy, calling them "a tectonic shift" and "a significant risk." Analysts say they will closely watch for any further remarks from her about the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs on global demand.

Some believe the central bank may revise its oil price assumptions downward in line with the government's latest forecasts.

"Pro-inflationary factors remain on the agenda, and the risks of escalating imported inflation are holding the central bank back from hastily lowering the interest rate," analysts at Solid brokerage said.